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How to Place Bet on Favorites for a Living

The best way to profit from place betting is to compound the returns from a betting system with a very high strike rate (around 90%). This place betting system is perfect for this and can be easily applied with just a basic form guide (no computer required).

The Rating Bureau, Australia's leading supplier of horse racing data, software and analysis, will provide free horse racing tips for all of Australia's premier horse races. Welcome to Kelly Schweida Racing where our aim is to strive for excellence and provide the best opportunities to win. We offer owners the complete experience of horse racing. Kelly has a personal approach with his horses and clients and is a reputable, dedicated trainer with traditional values.

Discover the secrets to turning $15 very safely into $157.28 by putting 5 highly secure place bets on favourites. Guaranteed Horse Betting Profits - even if you've never placed a bet before in your life!
'I made $6,854 from $17 - and now everyone (including my boss) is begging me to reveal my secret! Please hide your website' - Comrie Graham, Sydney.

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Note: The comments referred to above have been sourced from the vendors web site (which can be referred to via the above link for more information).

Not only does the above place betting eBook provide you with a great betting system but it is also a great introduction to betting. Below is a list of what is covered:

• Chapter One: Tells you how to read form guides, explains the different bet types and discusses the psychology of betting.
• Chapter Two: Discuses betting markets and introduces the main factors that affect your chances of wining.
• Chapter Three: Explains in detail the betting system rules for the How to Place Bet on Favorites for a Living method and concludes with over 5 pages on staking.

Finally there is a bonus chapter on how to use the place bet selections to make trifecta bets!

While the above place betting system does not require the use of a computer, we have been able to analyse the method in our Bet Selector Ultimate software. In doing so we have found that it works very well on the more popular Saturday Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane meetings where the strike rate last year (2012) was 89%. If you want to check this betting system out for yourself then please read the following notes in conjunction with Chapter 3 of the eBook:

• Substantial Gap Rule: In regards to this rule (page 20), we have found a figure of 3.0 works well.
• Track Condition Rule: Our suggestion is to replace this rule (Rule 5, page 21) by the modification mentioned in the last sentence of Variation 3 (page 22).

This betting system works so well that you can even increase betting activity without any reduction in strike rate by relaxing some of the rules a little (eg rules 1, 2 and 6) . Note this is because of the superior results on Saturday Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane meetings but please note if you wish to apply the method to other days of the week or to non-metrops you should be more careful about relaxing any of the rules (indeed you may find you need to tighten some).

Bonus Rule: The betting systems strike rate can be increased by around 4% if the horse is also required to be favorite in the early market (as sourced from Bet Selector or your Friday newspaper form guide).

A History of Place Betting Systems

Back in the early 90s we devised a much more complicated place betting system that produced similar results to the above method. It used last minute win tote approximates to predict first, second and third place probabilities and in turn the total predicted place chances - it then used these to target place bets predicted to have at least an 80% chance and at least 10% over the odds. Quite often this betting system identified horses predicted to be as short as $1.05 yet paying $1.20 or more - which was a massive overlay in percentage terms. This method was successful because punters shy away from short priced dividends and not surprisingly it was independently reviewed by Punter's Choice as 'matching claimed strike rates with consistent profits emerging'. The How to Place Bet on Favorites betting system above works for the same reasons but is now our recommended approach to place betting as it is so much easier to apply.

Note: Place betting systems by definition only collect when a runner finishes first, second or third in fields of 8 or more runners (or 7 in the event of a late scratching). In fields of 5, 6 or 7 (or 4 in the event of a late scratching) place dividends are only paid for first and second while with 4 or less starters no place dividends are paid. This applies in most parts of the world but in North America a bet that pays up to third place is called a 'show' bet while a 'place' bet only pays for first and second.

Our older method of calculating place probabilities was part of our Place Odds Calculator software first released for $1,995 in 1995. It was reviewed by Punter's Choice as 'an exciting product' and 'capable of making accurate assessments of reasonably precise and profitable place odds' - it is no longer available as a separate program but the same calculations are now incorporated in the Tote Pro part of our Bet Selector Gold software which is now free via the instructions below and includes a free copy of our Place Odds and Trifecta Report that describes the mathematics in more detail.

The Conversation is a great news site. But, for the most part, people don't read it like a newspaper. Instead, articles on specialised topics are shared with other people. One way is via Facebook.

Yesterday, almost none of that was possible worldwide for the Conversation's Australian content because Facebook opted to ban all news (even seeming news ) from Australian sources to avoid being designated for compulsory negotiations under legislation before the Australian parliament.

The government's new media bargaining code was a response to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's digital platforms inquiry that found it was hard for content providers, including but not limited to news organisations - to deal with platforms whose rules were always changing.

Parts of these grievances are legitimate, and relate to editorial and algorithmic issues. Others relate to the platform's stranglehold on online advertising.

But rather than tackle these issues head on, Australia's government sliced out a sliver of the sites affected - news sites - and attempted to fix things for it, saying it's concerned about competition.

Competition policy without more competition

To any economist, the point of competition policy is to encourage competition. In this case, either more digital platform options for consumers, or more news content options.

But the government's legislation seems to be uniquely designed to deliver neither.

The code allows news organisations to negotiate with large digital platforms about things such as how their algorithms work to prioritise content, and money.

And money is what it is really all about. The news organisations want more of it, large digital platforms have it. It's that simple.

The code empowers news organisations to get money from digital platforms by

• making it unlawful for digital platforms that do not pay up to provide links to Australian news, giving big news outlets quasi-monopoly bargaining power

• allowing deals to be made without the need for authorisation by a regulator concerned about the public interest

• providing a regulatory stop-gap should that not happen, whose design is tilted in interest of one of the parties

This last step requires a little explanation.

It is not unknown, especially in Australia, for competition policy to work by first allowing parties to negotiate, and then imposing a regulated settlement only if they fail.

And its normally about empowering the little guy, in the belief that's what leads to socially desirable outcomes.

Little guys locked out

But not in this case. It is only the large news organisations that would be allowed to negotiate over money.

It's quite different to the system adopted in France, whose government is able to collect money from digital platforms via a tax, which can, should the government wish, be distributed to content providers on a criteria other than naked private interest. The French system isn't clearly pro-competition either, but it at least provides a mechanism that could enable good outcomes to occur.

Read more: Banning news links just days before Australia's COVID vaccine rollout? Facebook, that's just dangerous

The Australian process fails to deliver competition in two ways.

First, it allows the treasurer, rather than a judge, to designate the platforms the process will apply to. He is unlikely to designate a platform that large media organisations have no problem working with, as that will entail work.

Second, the treasurer is unable to designate a platform that doesn't carry any Australian news. So if a digital platform wants out, it can get out.

Both of these things have begun to come to pass in the last day - even before the code has been legislated.

Facebook gains a bargaining tool

Google has done deals with some large news outlets and thereby signalled it will do deals with others to ensure it is not designated. It means Google won't have to deal with all of the other smaller voices that also have a problem with it.

Facebook has opted out of the news content business altogether, as the law allows it to. It decided Australian news wasn't worth it, at least for now. Australians can still share news from around the world, which in some ways is more valuable to them than local news they are already aware of.

Facebook might be doing it to get a better deal when negotiations take place.

Read more: Why Google is now funnelling millions into media outlets, as Facebook pulls news for Australia

Bizarrely, before the government's proposed legislation, if Facebook had excluded content from suppliers in order to get a better deal, Australia's Competition and Consumer Commission could have prosecuted it for exclusionary conduct.

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The new code gives Facebook a licence to do what it has just done, and argue that it could not have been exercising market power because it was merely using the steps identified in the code as necessary for it to avoid compulsory arbitration.

Never mind that this really means Facebook

• has been able to demonstrate to news outlets how much they need it

• is now able to get news organisations to agree to better conditions than if it had not been given this licence.

In other words, the entire process has had the (I hope) unintended consequence of enhancing the very market power that it claimed to intend to contain.

No more platforms, no more competition

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Those games aside: where will this end up? It will end up with the large digital platforms doing deals with the largest news outlets. Those deals will be multi-year lump-sum payments which enable everyone to go about their business. There will be no new digital platforms, no new content providers, no more competition.

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The shareholders of the large digital platforms will be a few million dollars poorer and the shareholders of large Australian news outlets a few million dollars richer.

There will be no improvement in any competitive outcome whatsoever. As often happens in Australia, oligarchies will consolidate, and consumers will get nothing.

Author: Joshua Gans - Professor of Strategic Management, University of Toronto